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Matt Patricia's tenure on thin ice entering annual Thanksgiving game

Texans (3-7) at Lions (4-6)

12:30 p.m. ET | CBS

Matchup rating: 24.2 | Spread: HOU -3 (51.5)

What to watch for: Is this Matt Patricia's final stand as Detroit's coach? After three double-digit losses in the Lions' past four games (and losing a 21-point lead in the team's one victory during that stretch), things are pretty dire for the third-year coach. How Detroit responds, knowing how hot its coach's seat is -- in its only nationally televised game of the season -- is the biggest storyline for either team in an otherwise forgettable matchup. -- Michael Rothstein

Bold prediction: Texans running back Duke Johnson will rush for a season-high 75 yards. The Texans' running game has struggled all season, and in his two games starting for the injured David Johnson, Duke Johnson has combined for 69 yards on 24 carries. But this week, the Texans face the 30th-ranked run defense in the NFL, with the Lions allowing an average of 139 rushing yards per game. -- Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson already has five games with at least 300 passing yards this season, tied for the most in a single season in his career (2018). Only Matt Schaub has had more such games in a single season in Texans history (nine in 2009 and seven in 2010).

Injuries: Texans | Lions

What to know for fantasy: Duke Johnson's Week 11 production was underwhelming, but the fact that he got 76.9% of Houston's running back carries holds weight as the Texans face the league's worst defense against fantasy RBs this season. See Week 12 rankings.

Betting nugget: Detroit is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in its past eight Thanksgiving games (covered last season). Read more.

Barshop's pick: Texans 24, Lions 17

Rothstein's pick: Texans 31, Lions 17

FPI prediction: HOU, 56.1% (by an average of 2.1 points)

Thanksgiving Day throwback: The Texans and Lions met on Thanksgiving in 2012 in a game remembered for some controversy. Texans running back Justin Forsett scored an 81-yard rushing touchdown despite replays showing multiple Lions players tackling him and his knee and elbow both touching the ground near midfield. But a challenge flag from Detroit coach Jim Schwartz negated the automatic booth review of the scoring play, and the Texans went on to win 34-31 on an overtime field goal from Shayne Graham.

Matchup must-reads: Texans' defense has "great all-around game" against Patriots ... Where are the Lions under Patricia? No improvement, no progress, no answers either ... "Bassfield Boys" have reunion in Detroit on Thanksgiving ... Analyzing Detroit's man defense vs. zone