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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

Nick Lodolo of the Cincinnati Reds has 31 strikeouts over his last 20 innings. Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

By Derek Carty

  • Tuesday's top streamer at starting pitcher is Nick Lodolo (31%). The rookie has been quite good this season, posting an 11.7 K/9 and 3.29 xFIP to support his 3.81 ERA. The matchup against Boston isn't ideal, but his strong skillset still gives him a top-10 projection in THE BAT X today.

  • If you're desperate for starts, Austin Voth (4%) is available almost everywhere and is in an elite matchup against the Tigers. The skills leave a lot to be desired, but THE BAT X thinks he can post a low-4.00s ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 5 strikeouts.

  • The Dodgers and Diamondbacks play a double-header today. The Dodgers project for the most and second-most runs on the slate today, but unfortunately most of their guys who will play both games are long gone in your leagues. It's worth checking if Chris Taylor (58%) is on your wire, though. The Diamondbacks have Christian Walker (78%) and Josh Rojas (66%) as elite options, if available. If not, Geraldo Perdomo (sub-1%) has been playing almost every game, while Jake McCarthy (48%) and Alek Thomas (5%) have a shot to play both.

  • If you the cupboard is bare for double-header guys, we still have the Giants in Coors Field against Kyle Freeland, making their righties elite plays. Wilmer Flores (75%), Evan Longoria (1%), J.D. Davis (sub-1%), and Joey Bart (4%) in particular are strong options. But anybody who cracks the lineup (lefty or righty) should be strongly considered.

  • If you're looking for steals down the stretch, see if Garrett Hampson (sub-1%) cracks Colorado's lineup today. Carlos Rodon is a great pitcher, but he's very easy to steal on, and it's Coors Field. Otherwise, check out Cleveland guys like Myles Straw (23%) and Andres Gimenez (76%)-with Amed Rosario (85%) and Steven Kwan (77%) slightly lesser options. They face Dylan Cease, who is also elite but easy to steal on.


Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday


Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.


Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday


The BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday


Prop of the day

Pablo Lopez Strikeouts: Over/Under 6.5 (-122/-104)

PREDICTION

THE BAT sees Lopez putting up 8.6 Strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 75.4% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $45.29.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

  • The Cubs (29.1 K%, via THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-heavy lineup today.

  • Clint Vondrak grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone today.

  • The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today -- favorable for pitching.

  • Pablo Lopez's fastball velocity over his last three outings (94.4 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (92.8 mph).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

Lopez's fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (92.2 mph) below where it was last season (93.3 mph).
Lopez has gone to his four-seamer 7.4% more often this year (38.6%) than he did last year (31.2%).