Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Wednesday's MLB Games
By Todd Zola
Wednesday's schedule begins at 12:20 PM ET in Truist Park with Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves hosting Josiah Gray and the Washington Nationals. Gray has fanned an impressive 147 hitters in 136 2/3 innings but he's walked 63 while also administering a league high 37 homers. In fact, Gray has allowed a home run in 22 of his 26 starts, including in each of his last 13. Most of the Braves are universally rostered, with Vaughn Grissom (49% rostered in ESPN leagues), Eddie Rosario (40%), William Contreras (39%) and Robbie Grossman (36%) all with a chance to play in the matinee and benefit from Gray's gopheritis.
He isn't likely to pitch more than five innings, but the slate's top ranked steaming option is Dustin May (51%) with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks. It's important to note Arizona lineup is no longer a layup for righthanded pitchers, though May is in good shape coming off five hitless frames in San Francisco.
The next best spot starters square off with Jesus Luzardo (33%) and the Miami Marlins hosting Drew Smyly (12%) and the Chicago Cubs. Both southpaws are enjoying solid second halves with Luzardo getting the slight home field advantage nod.
Bailey Ober (40%) populated many sleeper lists back in March, but a groin injury put him on the shelf on June 1. Ober returned last week, tossing five scoreless stanzas in Cleveland, limiting the Guardians to one hit while fanning five and walking just one. He's in a good spot to continue to salvage his season with a road start in Kansas City.
Turning to batters, Wednesday's six-pack of sticks features a duo of teammates in favorable scenarios along with a pair of promising rookies. Tigers lefthanders Riley Greene (14%) and Kerry Carpenter (1%) face Baltimore's righty Jordan Lyles where the right field fence is still reachable. The Rangers Josh Jung (8%) and Bubba Thompson (7%) enjoy the platoon bump at home with the Angels sending Tucker Davidson to the hill. The Twins Jose Miranda (35%) has been crushing the ball since the break and is slated to face the Royals improving, but still raw Daniel Lynch. Triston Casas (3%) wraps up the hitters with the Red Sox facing Chase Anderson for an interleague affair in the Great American Ballpark.
Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Christian Arroyo (BOS, 2B -- 2%) at Anderson
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF -- 7%) vs. Seabold
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 3%) at Anderson
Evan Longoria (SF, 3B -- 2%) at Marquez
Brandon Crawford (SF, SS -- 37%) at Marquez
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday
Trey Mancini (HOU, 1B -- 80%) at Kluber
Franmil Reyes (CHC, DH -- 54%) at Luzardo
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF -- 95%) at Severino
The BAT X's Best Stacks for Wednesday
Boston Red Sox at Chase Anderson
Prop of the day
Blake Snell Strikeouts: Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-145)
THE BAT sees Snell putting up 7.6 Strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.9% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $30.04.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
Brennan Miller projects as a Extreme Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches today.
Petco Park projects as the No. 10 venue in the majors for strikeouts, via THE BAT projection system.
The weather report calls for the fifth-best pitching weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 10.9-mph in this game, the second-best of the day for pitchers.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
The Cardinals (20 K%, per THE BAT X) project to have the fifth-least strikeout-heavy lineup today.
The Cardinals have nine bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Snell today.