Rumours rated: Vidal to Chelsea, Payet to return to Marseille, more?

How do you separate transfer fact from fiction? With the January transfer window now open, David Amoyal looks at some of the current rumours and predicts how likely it is that the proposed moves actually happen.

Jese Rodriguez to Liverpool 25 percent

The former Real Madrid winger was already struggling to find playing time before Julian Draxler's arrival, so the odds that he'll leave in January are increasing by the moment, especially after he wasn't selected for PSG's winter tour of Tunisia. He was linked to his hometown team Las Palmas, but the Spanish club cannot afford his wages, leaving Roma and Liverpool as the two likeliest destinations. Both clubs are looking for a replacement for a key player as they head to the African Nations Cup in Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, respectively. At the moment it appears that Roma have more urgency than the Reds, especially with Juan Iturbe joining Torino on loan.

Arturo Vidal to Chelsea in January: 15 percent

There's no doubt that the Chilean midfielder is one of Antonio Conte's favorite players and that Chelsea made a substantial profit with the sale of Oscar, but it's just hard to envision Bayern Munich selling such a key player during the winter window. Considering that players of Vidal's calibre rarely move in January -- especially from a team in the Champions League to one that isn't -- Chelsea's odds of signing him will be considerably better next summer.

Marouane Fellaini to Juventus: 10 percent

Axel Witsel's abrupt decision to accept a lucrative offer from China could force the current Serie A champions back on the market to acquire a midfielder, even after signing Tomas Rincon from Genoa. While Fellaini is certainly available for a bargain deal which would facilitate a move in January and Juventus needs a physical player in the midfield, the Italian club is currently targeting Corentin Tolisso, Steven N'Zonzi and Luiz Gustavo as their first choices.

Keita Balde Diao to Manchester United: 25 percent

While the Red Devils had been previously linked to Felipe Anderson, they could end up signing his teammate Keita. The former Barcelona youth team player's contract expires in 2018, and Lazio have been unable to get him to agree to an extension, so they will now look to cash in on him while they still have leverage. As Gianluca Di Marzio reported, Lazio's sporting director Igli Tare met with agent Jorge Mendes, who could now offer Keita to Manchester United. The 21-year-old winger could replace Memphis Depay, as his age and skill set make him the type of player Jose Mourinho's club is willing to invest significantly on.

Dimitri Payet to Marseille: 15 percent

While it's not surprising to see that new owner Frank McCourt is determined to make a significant signing during his first transfer window, West Ham's precarious position in the standings makes it extremely unlikely that they'll move their best player, a fact that was recently confirmed by manager Slaven Bilic. According to L'Equipe, Marseille are willing to offer between 30 and 40 million euros to reacquire Payet, but will almost certainly have to wait until the summer to start a formal negotiation for him -- and by then they'll have a lot of competition.

Keisuke Honda to Major League Soccer: 65 percent

The Japanese international has been linked to MLS clubs for the past year, and now that his contract with AC Milan is set to expire in June, his next stop will almost certainly be in North America. The Chicago Fire, Los Angeles Galaxy and New York City FC are interested in signing Honda, but the move will likely take place at the end of the Serie A season unless Milan can convince Everton to loan them Gerard Deulofeu as a replacement. At the moment it appears that Ronald Koeman would only approve a deal where the Spanish winger leaves on a permanent basis.

Francesco Acerbi to Leicester: 25 percent

It's not surprising to see Claudio Ranieri shopping in Italy to bolster his defense. The current Premier League champions are interested in Sassuolo centre-back Acerbi, and while the player is intrigued by the potential move, his current club considers him too valuable to let him leave in January, especially considering their disappointing position in the standings. As an alternative to Acerbi, Leicester could sign former Manchester City centre-back Matija Nastasic, who currently plays for Schalke 04.

Stevan Jovetic to Sevilla: 40 percent

The former Manchester City striker has been marginalized at Inter and will almost certainly look for a new team in January. While Jovetic has been linked to Fenerbahce and clubs in both La Liga and the Bundesliga, his preference is to stay in Italy. That being said, the momentum for a return to Fiorentina has stalled however, since it now appears that Nikola Kalinic won't accept an offer from China after all. At the moment, the club taking the most concrete steps to sign Jovetic are Sevilla, and the striker could warm to the idea of leaving Serie A the further we get into the transfer window.

Fabio Borini to Serie A: 30 percent

The Italian striker could be returning to Serie A after four and a half seasons in the Premier League. Borini has been recently linked to AC Milan and Roma who at the moment are looking to acquire him on a loan with an option to buy deal, a formula that will almost certainly not satisfy Sunderland. While Roma are more likely to invest significantly on a winger, Milan could become more aggressive in their pursuit of Borini should they receive a big offer for Carlos Bacca.

Serge Gnabry to Napoli in 2017: 35 percent

The former Arsenal winger would give Napoli insurance in the negotiations of Lorenzo Insigne's contract extension. The Italian club have been following Gnabry closely and are setting the table for a formal negotiation in the summer, as they believe he's an ideal fit for their squad because of his ability to play on either side of the pitch. However, Nike's sponsorship of Gnabry could prove to be a significant stumbling block in the negotiations since Napoli typically keeps the revenue from their players' marketing rights.