COLUMBUS, Ohio -- When push comes to shove, it won't be history or the chilly temperatures that will determine whether the U.S. is able to defeat Mexico at home for the fifth consecutive World Cup qualifying cycle when these neighbors meet Friday night in Ohio's capital.
It will be how the Americans perform on the field against the region's most dangerous squad in the opening match of the final Hexagonal round.
"Mexico is always a good team," U.S. midfielder Jermaine Jones said before the Americans' final training session Thursday at Mapfre Stadium, where the U.S. has won the previous four meetings dating to 2001 by identical 2-0 score lines.
"Most of [their] guys play in Europe. But still, if we go out there and face them with the heart that we always do here, then it will not be easy for them."
It will be more difficult still for El Tri if Jones is on the field in his usual central midfield spot.
The German-American enforcer only recently returned from a long-term knee injury, and while he helped the Colorado Rapids reach the last four of the MLS playoffs Sunday with a brilliant 82-minute performance against the LA Galaxy, he has not played an entire match since June. Still, such is his importance to the U.S. that it would surprise nobody if coach Jurgen Klinsmann included Jones in his lineup anyway.
"We'll see if he can go 90 minutes, how far he can go," Klinsmann said of Jones. "But just to have him with us means a lot to us and makes us just feel a lot more comfortable."
A victory would increase the hosts' comfort level significantly. With a difficult trip to San Jose, Costa Rica, looming just four days after the meeting with El Tri, getting three points from the first match is imperative for a U.S. team that went a perfect 8-0 at home en route to Brazil 2014 but won just three times on the road, with three draws and two defeats.
"It starts off with a six-pointer, almost, against Mexico, for both teams," Klinsmann said. "I think that's huge."
There are other lineup decisions to be made for the Yanks. Since starting center-back Geoff Cameron is unavailable because of a knee injury he picked up playing for English Premier League side Stoke City, Klinsmann will have to find a partner for the left-footed John Brooks. The leading candidates appear to be Steve Birnbaum and Omar Gonzalez.
Gonzalez plays for Pachuca in Liga MX, but Mexico's top flight has supplied just 10 players to coach Juan Carlos Osorio's current roster. But Birnbaum has been ahead of Gonzalez in Klinsmann's pecking order for most of 2016. And while Birnbaum hasn't played since Oct. 27, when D.C. United were eliminated from the MLS postseason, he's done his best to remain in game shape.
"We had a lot of the [D.C.] coaching staff stay behind with me during the last week after we lost in the playoffs," Birnbaum said. "They kept me fit, and I did some technical work and trained with the academy a little bit, and then I was ready to rock once I got here."
Elsewhere, in-form Timmy Chandler could replace DeAndre Yedlin at right-back, although that would sacrifice even more of the continuity Klinsmann's back four built during the summer's successful Copa America showing. There's also a chance Klinsmann could opt for playmaker Sacha Kljestan in the midfield alongside Michael Bradley, at the expense or either Jones or Alejandro Bedoya.
On the attacking side, Jozy Altidore, Bobby Wood and 18-year-old Borussia Dortmund midfielder Christian Pulisic are all expected to start, with the latter two emerging as U.S. fixtures only this year.
Whoever plays for the U.S. in this latest version of the Columbus Clasico, amid the political overtones, will be well-aware of the history here. Klinsmann noted in his prematch press conference that he'd invited several former national-teamers to speak to his players this week, including Columbus Crew coach Gregg Berhalter, his top assistant Josh Wolff and club ambassador Frankie Hejduk -- all veterans of multiple World Cups.
"That was pretty awesome," Kljestan said. "That was a good moment for the team to look back on what we have done in the past that has made us successful. And I think the young guys really enjoyed that."
After the disappointment of last year's CONCACAF Cup loss to Mexico, they'll enjoy adding to that legacy in Columbus capital even more.
"This is the job of coaches between two World Cups, to build a new cycle, to build a new group that is full of energy, and I think we're on the right path," Klinsmann said. "But now starts the Hex with such a big game, and we're going to be put on our toes for the first second on."
It will be up to the players, and only them, to come out on top yet again.