It's nearly time for football Christmas, and with Nov. 27 and 28 rapidly approaching, ESPN's AFL draft expert Chris Doerre has looked at three of the biggest trends that will impact the draft.
The return of the ruckman
Luke Jackson is this year's best ruck prospect. It is expected he will be the first ruckman taken inside the top 10 since Billy Longer was selected with pick 8 in 2011.
Incredibly, Brodie Grundy slid to pick 18 in 2012 after being touted a top-five selection throughout the season. In that year, clubs transitioned from overvaluing ruckmen to letting them slide down the draft order and it's remained the same for the past seven or so years. Since Grundy, Tim English is the only ruckman taken inside the first round, selected with pick 19 in 2016.
This move away from taking ruckmen early has come about for a few reasons. Clubs were generally well stocked for ruckmen in 2012, with many teams observing the high proportion of 'misses' with underperforming ruckmen taken early, and recognising the successful recruitment of ruckmen as rookies.
The last two ruckmen taken inside the top 10 were Longer and Daniel Gorringe (pick 10, 2010), who follow a long list of failed ruckmen selected inside the first round in the 90s and 00s.
Around the time of the 2012 season, former rookies Dean Cox, Aaron Sandilands, Shane Mumford, Darren Jolly, Sam Jacobs, Mark Jamar, Dean Brogan and Mike Pyke were among the best big men in the competition. Of those, Mumford, Jolly and Jacobs were acquired cheaply by trade before becoming established players while the others remained with their original clubs and developed beyond expectation.
What seemed most economical at this time was to either draft ruckmen as rookies or let rival clubs develop them before targeting them during the trade period. It's that reason why back-to-back All-Australian Grundy slid to pick 18 in what in hindsight appears an over-adjustment the other way.
In the years following 2012, there has been a pivot towards tall (200+cm) juniors being drafted into the system as key position players rather than ruckmen. It appears this has come about with the push in clubland towards players offering greater positional flexibility and expanding their games.
There also appears to be recognition both among AFL and pathway clubs that many juniors used as ruckmen at AFL level in their early years have either suffered from durability problems or had their careers shortened. Josh Fraser, Matthew Leuenberger, Matthew Kreuzer and Nic Naitanui are the prime examples of having had shortened or injury interrupted careers - and this resulted in the pivot towards the best 200+cm prospects developing into key position players.
Since Grundy was drafted, Harris Andrews, Joe Daniher, Darcy Moore, Ben Brown, Harry McKay, Eric Hipwood and Alex Pearce are among those most notable 200+cm key position players. There have by contrast been very few good ruckmen selected in this time with Toby Nankervis, Rowan Marshall, Rory Lobb, Sean Darcy, English and Reilly O'Brien headlining this underwhelming group.
With so few good ruckmen drafted recently and the ruck stocks of most clubs aging due to this scarcity of good young rucks in the competition, the demand in clubland for ruckmen is on the rise again.
A blind eye is no longer being turned to 180cm and shorter players.
With Richmond winning two of the past three Grand Finals with forward pressure their calling card, and the Western Bulldogs winning the 2016 flag with a front half led by small forwards, clubs are valuing forward pressure and quality small and medium forwards more highly than ever before.
Last year it was a surprise to see Essendon bid on Irving Mosquito with pick 38. The bid was so much earlier than expected that Hawthorn -- who Mosquito was tied to as a next-generation academy member -- elected not to match the Bombers' bid.
This year it's likely several small forwards are taken earlier than expected. For example, it seems likely that Cody Weightman will be taken well inside top 15. Although the athletic small forward led the Under-18 Championships with nine goals and can make 'something out of nothing', he has lacked consistency and managed only modest numbers otherwise.
Kysaiah Pickett, 171cm, is another to keep an eye on, having entered first-round discussion and set to be picked somewhere in the 10-30 range. Kysaiah, the nephew of Byron, doesn't find much of the ball but due to his best-in-class forward pressure in addition to his speed and instinctive style of play, looks set to go a lot earlier than expected.
Rookie draft being used to re-draft players more than to introduce new talent
In last year's rookie draft, there were 40 selections made. A record 22 of the players picked were re-drafted directly from AFL lists, with only four of those changing clubs. It is likely a similar proportion of selected rookies are re-drafted talents.
What clubs have realised and done more often over the past 10 years is they can de-list contracted players and re-draft them as rookies. This way, during the trade period, free agency and national draft, they have more senior list positions available to use to add the best talent.
Seemingly gone are the days that clubs -- such as Collingwood in 2010 -- win premierships with seven former rookie listed players, due to such a small proportion of new players now coming in through the rookie draft.
One by-product of increased delistings is there are greater opportunities now for savvy clubs to acquire undervalued talent from opposition lists whether through delisted free agency or through the rookie draft.