Relax.
Reelaaaaaaaxxxxxx.
It cannot be stressed enough at this early stage of the season, and it's advice I give, traditionally in this space, every year.
Most anyone who has played fantasy baseball for even a short period of time has heard the phrase "small sample size;" the first 2-3 days of a season is as good a representation of that as there is. There's a geeky stat I could use to illustrate: As of this column's publishing time, 1.5 percent of the MLB season is in the books.
Now let's have a little fun with that stat. At the moment in 2014 at which an equal percentage of the Major League Baseball season was complete:
• The Seattle Mariners were on pace to score a major league-leading 1,404 runs.
• Salvador Perez was leading the American League in batting average (.714).
• Justin Smoak was on pace for 108 home runs and 378 RBIs.
• Martin Perez was on pace for 378 strikeouts, 231 if you ran his pace numbers assuming he'd start every fifth team game.
• John Axford was on pace for 162 saves.
Now, I was a believer that all five were due for bigger and better things in 2014 than in their previous pasts, and mere days into the season, they were right on track. Then the season's next 180 days happened ...
• The Mariners scored 608 more runs, seventh fewest, in 159 games.
• Perez batted .254, 106th out of 145 qualifiers during that time.
• Smoak hit only five more home runs and drove in 23 more runs.
• Perez made seven more starts before succumbing to season-ending Tommy John surgery May 19.
• Axford was 8-for-11 converting saves, losing his closer job 33 days later.
The point isn't to identify my "value" suggestions from 2014 that turned sour; the point is that nothing about my valuations of said players did -- or should have -- changed as a result of a few days' returns. The same lesson applies today; as you browse the updated "year-to-end" rankings below, which will be published each Wednesday, keep in mind that little will have changed from a value standpoint since this past Sunday's first pitch.
Those whose rankings did change? They did so for news- or skills-related reasons, such as a change in role, a change in pitch selection, effectiveness or velocity, or an injury. Cole Hamels, for example, didn't move at all despite his four-homers-in-five-innings Opening Day performance. But the players listed below did, so let's explain why ...
Steve Pearce: His represented the largest upward move of any player within the Top 250, but it was not a direct result of the home runs he hit in each of the Baltimore Orioles' first two regular-season games. After all, I've stresses in multiple places that Pearce's 2014 gains were legit. Instead, the adjustment is related to his increased prospects of an every-day role, which was somewhat in question entering the year, what with Chris Davis, Alejandro De Aza, Travis Snider and Delmon Young competing for at-bats at first base, DH and the corner outfield spots. Pearce batted cleanup on Opening Day, then second in Games 2 and 3, the latter a surefire sign that the Orioles regard him an integral part of their lineup. With a 600-plus-PA load, he deserves a 30-homer projection, with 95/75 in RBIs/runs with the larger number dependent upon whether he sticks at second or fourth in the lineup. In short, he could be to this year what Lucas Duda was to last, plus perhaps 10-15 points in batting average.
Wilin Rosario: Conversely, Rosario's ranking has plummeted outside the Top 250 overall, primarily due to concerns about his role. He's a poor defensive catcher, the only one to rank among the eight worst at his position in 2014 in terms of defensive runs saved, errors and stolen base percentage allowed (minimum 25 attempts); it's why the Colorado Rockies prefer Nick Hundley as their usual backstop (though, in fairness, Hundley's statistics aren't much better than league average). And while a trade might be in Rosario's best interests from a fantasy perspective, such a move would rob him of the Coors Field advantage that helped make him an attractive power source in the past. At No. 19 among catchers, he might still be ranked too high.
Ryan Braun: It took six innings' action for Braun to suffer his first injury of 2015, a side/rib issue, which reportedly could heal in time for him to return this weekend. However, after he missed 63 games combined in 2013-14, most of those due to a thumb injury, any absence by him warrants concern. He's the only member of my top 50 to drop more than five spots.
Mat Latos: Oh, if only we had pitch-by-pitch velocity readings from spring training games; now that would be a meaningful spring training stat. Reports on Latos' velocity in March were that it hadn't increased from his 90.6 mph average in 2014, and in his 2015 regular-season debut, his averaged 91.0 mph and never exceeded 92. No -- barring an unreported injury -- his season-ending ERA will not remain anywhere near as high as 94.50. But Latos' lost K's -- his declined by nearly one and a half per nine innings in 2014 -- might never return if he doesn't suddenly recapture the lost velocity, and that would drop him into the streamer's class in ESPN mixed leagues.
Jenrry Mejia: He plummeted far outside the Top 250 after his placement on the DL, partly because of the number of viable candidates the New York Mets have for saves from a full-year perspective. They've hinted that a healthy Bobby Parnell is their closer, and he might be only a couple of weeks away from returning, while Jeurys Familia and Vic Black have closer-worthy skill sets in their own right. Mejia's 1.44 WHIP as a reliever in 2014 is a problem, and if he can't make a swift recovery, he might find himself locked into long-shot-for-saves status within a matter of days.
And now, here are the Top 250, going-forward rankings. Click here if you want the rankings sorted by position.