What bearing might a club's Premier League position at Christmas have on their finishing position come the end of the season?
For clubs at the top since the dawn of the 21st century, the portents are pretty positive. Ten teams have led the league on Dec. 25 and been crowned champions the following May. And since 2008, only Liverpool (2008-09 and 2013-14, finishing second twice) have led the league at Christmas and not been crowned champions. That might even comfort those hoping Jurgen Klopp's second-placed Reds can go one better.
Those fearing relegation can find optimism. Three times since 1999-2000 have clubs -- West Brom 2004-05, Sunderland 2013-14 and Leicester 2014-15 -- been bottom at Christmas and survived. That's possibly good news for Hull City and Mike Phelan. Stay up in the spring and next season they might even "do a Leicester".
And only twice since the turn of the Millennium has the bottom three at Christmas formed the eventual trio that dropped to the Championship. In the course of 17 seasons, 21 clubs from a possible 51 have managed to stay in the Premier League, having been in the drop zone ahead of the Boxing Day schedule.
Below, a look at the state of play at Christmas, and what would transpire at the end of each season.
1999-2000: Leeds United led Manchester United by a point, but had played a game more. Man United won the title by 18 points from second-placed Arsenal. Leeds finished third, an eventual 22 points behind the champions. Sheffield Wednesday, Watford and Derby County were the bottom three. Only Derby escaped, as Wimbledon instead went down.
2000-01: Manchester United led Arsenal by eight points and were 10 points clear when claiming their third successive title in May. Bradford, Middlesbrough and Coventry were the Christmas bottom three. Only Middlesbrough would escape, as Manchester City instead crashed down.
2001-02: Newcastle United, led by Sir Bobby Robson, were three points clear of eventual champions Arsenal, who won the title by seven points from Liverpool. Newcastle finished fourth. The bottom three, Ipswich, Leicester and Derby, all ended up falling through the trapdoor.
2002-03: Arsenal had lost just one game and were two points clear of Chelsea, with Manchester United a further two back but United, who won 10 of their final 11 matches, won the title by five points. West Ham, Bolton and West Brom made up the bottom three. West Brom collected just 10 points from their last 19 matches, while the Hammers perished on a record-high total of 42 points for a relegated team. Bolton stayed up on the final day, having long passed Sunderland, who had collected just one point from their last 19 matches.
2003-04: Manchester United led Arsenal by a single point, but were left trailing in the wake of Arsene Wenger's "Invincibles", unbeaten as they won the title by 11 points from Chelsea, with United fading back to third, 15 points behind. At the bottom, Wolves, Leeds -- by now wracked by financial crisis -- and Portsmouth were in the drop zone. Only Pompey survived, as Leicester instead fell to their second relegation in three seasons.
2004-05: Chelsea were five points clear of Arsenal in Jose Mourinho's inaugural season, and left them eating more dust when finishing 12 clear in May, collecting a record points total of 95. In the basement, West Brom at last broke the Premier League's post-1992 hoodoo of being bottom at Christmas. Southampton and Crystal Palace could not pull themselves out, and, as West Brom beat Portsmouth 2-0, Norwich blew apart at Fulham, losing 6-0 and suffering the drop.
2005-06: Chelsea were almost as devastating in Mourinho's second season, entering Christmas nine points clear of Manchester United, who could only close the gap to eight by the end of the campaign. Sunderland had just five points at Christmas, and would only reach 16 total points. Portsmouth made another escape as West Brom replaced them in the bottom three alongside Birmingham.
2006-07: Manchester United led Chelsea by two points and would stop Mourinho making it three in a row by eventually winning the league by six points. Bottom-placed Watford, and Charlton both failed to escape Yuletide woes, but West Ham edged Sheffield United into the bottom three, igniting legal action. The Hammers had fielded third-party owned players Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano. United stayed down, but the Hammers had to settle out of court with the South Yorkshire club.
2007-08: Arsenal led Manchester United by a single point, but would drop from the pace and finish third as United eventually held off Chelsea to win the league on the final day by two slim points. Derby County had just seven points at Christmas and would claim only four more, but both Wigan and Sunderland (at last) escaped being relegated. Reading and Birmingham City instead went down, with Fulham squirming away from them on goal difference and by a point respectively.
2008-09: Liverpool topped the table by a single point from Chelsea, with Manchester United seven points back. United, though, had two games in hand, having played at the FIFA Club World Cup. They would eventually hold off Rafa Benitez's Reds by four points. West Brom were unable to repeat their 2004-05 magic trick, and went down, though both Blackburn and Manchester City escaped. Instead, there was North East misery as Middlesbrough and Newcastle descended.
2009-10: Chelsea, under Carlo Ancelotti, led Manchester United by four points on Dec. 20, and would hold on to win the league by a single point on May 9. Portsmouth were bottom at Christmas and stayed there, though West Ham and Bolton squeezed clear as Burnley and Hull gave way.
2010-11: Manchester United led Arsenal by two points but the Gunners, and everyone else besides, would fade away and United claimed their record-breaking 19th English league title by nine points from eventual second Chelsea. West Ham, Wolves and Wigan made up the drop zone. Only the Hammers would perish, as relegated Birmingham and Blackpool both lost out by a point to Wolves.
2011-12: Manchester City led neighbours United by two points, and would need the last-minute heroics of Sergio Aguero in 3-2 defeat of QPR to win their first title since 1968. A Lancastrian trio of Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan made up the festive fallers, but Wigan staged yet another escape as Wolves fell through the floor to finish bottom on 25 points, having had 15 at Christmas.
2012-13: It was not common knowledge, or perhaps even decided, but Sir Alex Ferguson celebrated his final Christmas as Manchester United manager by leading City by four points. He would sign off in style, 11 points clear of distantly second City. Reading, QPR and Wigan made up the bottom three, and this time, all three went down, the first two's fates sealed long before May. Wigan could not follow up shocking Manchester City in the FA Cup final by fighting their way out, taking just a single point from their final two matches.
2013-14: Liverpool led Arsenal on goal difference, with Manchester City a point back. By the final day, heartbreak had descended for Brendan Rodgers' team. City took advantage of Steven Gerrard's infamous slip against Chelsea to triumph by two points. Sunderland were bottom at Christmas, yet made their escape once Gus Poyet replaced Paolo Di Canio as manager. Fulham, who ended up making two managerial changes, were not so lucky. Crystal Palace got clear, and Cardiff finished bottom, with Norwich joining the Welsh club.
2014-15: Chelsea repeated the blitz of Mourinho's first spell by leading at Christmas and cruising clear by the end of season. Manchester City were within three points on Dec. 22, yet finished eight points back. Leicester were bottom on just 10 points, having won just two matches of 17. They would stage their portentous run to freedom, before true glory the next season, but Hull City and Burnley would slide away. QPR slid from 16th at Christmas to rock bottom.
2015-16: Leicester's two-point lead over Arsenal seemed barely credible at Christmas, before the impossible reality of winning the title 10 points clear of the same opposition. Aston Villa had seven points on Dec. 21, making their demotion inevitable. Sunderland and Swansea, though, would climb out of trouble as Norwich and Newcastle were relegated instead.