FPI game predictions for the NFC divisional round: -49ers have a 66% chance to beat the Vikings -Packers have a 66% chance to beat the Seahawks

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics2d ago

Stefon Diggs finished the game with 2 catches on 3 targets for 19 yards. Janoris Jenkins lined up opposite Diggs on 29 of his 33 routes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Jenkins was the nearest defender to Diggs on one target, which Diggs caught for a 10-yard gain (Marcus Williams was nearest defender on the other two targets).

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

Stefon Diggs received zero targets in the first half. Janoris Jenkins lined up opposite him on 14 of 17 routes, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

Texans made a significant halftime adjustment. In 1st half: DeAndre Hopkins lined up in slot 75% of the time to avoid Tre'Davious White (Hopkins was in the slot 30% of the time in the regular season). 0 receptions on 2 targets. 2nd half: Out wide 59% of time. 6-6, including 4-4 for 70 yards when White was the nearest defender. Via NFL Next Gen Stats.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

On the Bills' 4th-and-27: ESPN's win probability model thought a field goal was the best option (assuming league average kicker). If McDermott felt like that was not a realistic choice, punting would have been by far next best. Bills WP w/ punt: 16.5% Bills WP w/ go: 11.4%

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

Though it didn't work, Bill O'Brien's decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 from the Bills' 30 with 1:21 left was narrowly the correct call, per ESPN's win probability model. Attempting a field goal would have cost the Texans 1 percentage point of win probability.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

Bill O'Brien's decision to attempt a field goal on 4th and 5 from the 23-yard line was the correct choice, per ESPN's win probability model. Going for it would have cost the Texans 2.1 percentage points of win probability.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics3d ago

The Minnesota Twins are hiring former Pittsburgh Steelers analytics coordinator Karim Kassam to be their director of baseball research, per source. Kassam actually isn't the first former football analytics staffer to join the Twins front office: Assistant GM Dan Adler was previously the Jaguars' director of football research.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics5d ago

In the first half of the season, the Patriots ranked 25th in pass block win rate. In the second half, they ranked 8th. PBWR = how often a team sustains all of its pass blocks for at least 2.5s. It's an ESPN metric that uses Next Gen Stats data.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics9d ago

Ryan Fitzpatrick finished 8th in QBR behind the worst pass blocking team in the league.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics9d ago

That the Packers have a bye and have a lower chance to win the Super Bowl (6%) than the Saints (7%) tells you exactly what FPI thinks of Green Bay.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics9d ago

Every playoff team's chance to win the Super Bowl, per FPI: Ravens 36% Chiefs 22% 49ers 19% Saints 7% Packers 6% Patriots 5% Vikings 2% Eagles 1% Texans 1% Seahawks <1% Titans <1% Bills <1%

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics9d ago

Kyle Shanahan's decision to punt on 4th-and-1 from the 49ers' 30-yard line with 2:34 left in the game cost San Francisco just over two percentage points of win probability, per ESPN's model. The 49ers had an 81.9% chance to win by punting and would have had an 84% chance to win by going for it.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics9d ago

The Patriots had a 16% chance to win the Super Bowl entering today, per FPI. After the early window in which New England lost to Miami, the Patriots' have an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics10d ago

Best average projected draft slot, per FPI through early window: Bengals 1.0 Redskins 2.1 Lions 2.9 Giants 3.9 Dolphins 5.0 Chargers 6.6 Jaguars 7.0 Panthers 7.6 Cardinals 9.1 Browns 10.1

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics10d ago