topsecretdailynotesfile

Jul 9, 2026, 06:02 PM

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
13.2	Michael Wacha	R	@NYM	63.6%	49%	6.7	7.9	2.5	5.7
13.1	Jesus Luzardo	L	@CIN	95.4%	42%	5.8	7.2	2.5	7.4
12.8	Drew Rasmussen	R	NYY	93.3%	32%	5.4	5.8	1.7	5.5
12.5	Sean Manaea	L	KC	3.0%	25%	5.4	5.8	1.7	5.7
11.9	Nathan Eovaldi	R	LAA	89.1%	33%	5.8	6.8	2.6	6.4
11.1	Bryce Miller	R	@MIA	79.8%	28%	5.3	6.0	2.0	5.2
10.7	Reid Detmers	L	@TEX	56.7%	33%	5.9	7.6	2.9	6.3
10.6	Merrill Kelly	R	@SD	21.0%	39%	6.0	7.6	2.6	5.2
10.4	Framber Valdez	L	ATH	75.1%	37%	5.7	7.3	2.6	5.6
9.5	Logan Henderson	R	@STL	24.3%	20%	4.8	5.6	1.9	4.7
9.5	Bailey Ober	R	CLE	17.0%	30%	5.6	6.9	2.7	4.9
9.4	Gavin Williams	R	@MIN	94.5%	34%	5.5	7.6	2.8	5.8
9.2	Trevor Rogers	L	CHC	45.5%	35%	5.5	7.1	2.5	4.8
9.0	Andre Pallante	R	MIL	24.1%	32%	5.8	7.7	2.6	4.4
8.7	Ryan Yarbrough	L	@TB	0.3%	13%	4.4	5.2	1.6	4.1
8.7	Janson Junk	R	SEA	1.4%	28%	5.0	6.1	2.1	4.1
8.6	Anthony Kay	L	BOS	6.3%	21%	4.7	5.8	1.9	4.3
8.4	Carson Whisenhunt	L	COL	0.2%	26%	4.9	6.5	2.1	4.4
8.1	Ryan Feltner	R	@SF	3.2%	33%	5.6	7.8	2.7	4.5
8.0	David Peterson	L	@BAL	3.2%	24%	4.9	6.6	2.4	5.0
8.0	Jack Perkins*	R	@DET	1.8%	22%	4.9	6.9	2.6	5.4
7.8	Brady Singer	R	PHI	7.3%	22%	5.8	8.1	3.5	5.9
7.5	Griffin Canning	R	ARI	0.6%	18%	4.8	6.7	2.2	4.4
7.3	Bryce Elder	R	@PIT	45.7%	30%	5.3	7.6	2.9	4.7
6.9	Mitch Keller	R	ATL	25.5%	28%	5.2	7.2	2.8	4.3
5.7	Patrick Sandoval	L	@CWS	1.7%	5%	3.1	3.7	1.2	2.9

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
15.9	Nolan McLean	R	BOS	90.8%	44%	6.4	6.8	1.7	6.6
14.4	Shohei Ohtani	R	ARI	99.8%	53%	6.2	7.1	2.2	6.5
13.7	Chris Sale	L	@STL	99.5%	45%	6.0	6.9	2.1	6.4
12.7	Parker Messick	L	@MIA	91.9%	35%	5.9	6.8	2.1	6.0
12.6	Sonny Gray	R	@NYM	91.8%	28%	5.8	6.6	2.1	6.2
11.7	Sandy Alcantara	R	CLE	82.8%	44%	6.7	8.5	2.8	5.7
11.5	Robbie Ray	L	COL	69.4%	39%	5.7	6.9	2.2	5.4
11.2	Hunter Brown	R	@TEX	93.5%	40%	5.5	6.7	2.3	5.8
11.1	Luis Castillo	R	@TB	50.8%	32%	5.7	7.0	2.2	5.4
10.9	Braxton Ashcraft	R	MIL	90.6%	34%	5.9	7.6	2.6	6.0
10.9	Nick Martinez	R	SEA	59.8%	32%	5.6	6.5	2.1	4.9
10.7	Hunter Greene	R	CHC	59.3%	25%	5.0	5.8	2.2	5.9
10.4	Zebby Matthews	R	LAA	6.8%	37%	5.7	7.2	2.9	6.0
10.3	Brandon Sproat	R	@PIT	8.0%	36%	5.8	7.6	2.6	5.4
9.9	Brandon Young	R	KC	15.2%	38%	6.0	7.8	2.9	5.4
9.8	Sean Burke	R	ATH	33.6%	35%	5.6	7.4	2.8	5.8
9.8	Shota Imanaga	L	@CIN	78.3%	31%	5.2	6.1	2.6	5.5
8.8	Jack Flaherty	R	PHI	35.0%	28%	5.3	7.1	2.7	5.5
8.7	JP Sears	L	TOR	1.0%	27%	5.1	6.5	2.3	4.4
8.6	Shane Bieber	R	@SD	18.3%	28%	5.2	6.8	2.5	4.7
8.5	Aaron Civale	R	@CWS	2.4%	29%	5.6	7.3	2.8	4.9
8.3	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	@LAD	62.3%	21%	5.8	7.7	2.9	4.8
8.0	Aaron Nola	R	@DET	36.9%	33%	5.5	7.6	3.3	5.6
7.9	Ryan Weathers	L	@WSH	30.3%	20%	4.8	6.4	2.5	5.1
7.3	Luinder Avila	R	@BAL	1.1%	19%	4.8	6.7	2.4	4.6
7.1	Zack Littell	R	NYY	2.6%	26%	5.1	6.5	2.9	4.1
6.8	Kyle Leahy	R	ATL	7.1%	19%	5.0	7.2	2.6	4.4
6.3	Tanner Gordon	R	@SF	0.2%	23%	5.3	7.5	3.1	4.3
6.1	Grayson Rodriguez	R	@MIN	2.3%	22%	4.9	7.2	2.9	4.7
2.6	Cal Quantrill	R	HOU	0.2%	3%	3.0	4.5	2.1	2.5

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37