topsecretdailynotesfile

May 20, 2026, 06:46 PM

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
17.1	Chris Sale	L	@MIA	99.7%	52%	6.5	6.8	1.9	7.8
14.3	Shohei Ohtani	R	@SD	99.8%	40%	6.0	6.6	1.9	6.4
13.1	Cam Schlittler	R	TOR	98.4%	42%	6.3	7.5	2.4	6.4
13.0	Joe Ryan	R	HOU	96.1%	36%	5.8	6.6	2.3	6.5
12.7	Shane Baz	R	@TB	22.0%	48%	6.3	7.9	2.4	6.2
11.0	Janson Junk	R	ATL	4.8%	32%	6.2	7.3	2.5	5.0
11.0	Trey Yesavage	R	@NYY	67.6%	24%	5.0	6.2	1.9	6.0
10.8	Emerson Hancock	R	CWS	81.3%	42%	6.3	7.9	2.9	5.7
10.2	Michael McGreevy	R	PIT	52.2%	30%	5.5	6.5	2.2	4.5
10.0	Tanner Bibee	R	@DET	59.5%	36%	5.7	7.2	2.7	5.3
9.8	Aaron Nola	R	CIN	43.4%	32%	5.5	7.0	2.8	5.9
9.6	Merrill Kelly	R	SF	28.7%	40%	6.2	8.2	3.2	5.5
9.5	Andrew Abbott	L	@PHI	44.0%	26%	5.5	6.8	2.5	5.1
9.4	Mike Burrows	R	@MIN	4.0%	34%	6.1	8.2	3.3	6.0
9.1	Edward Cabrera	R	MIL	51.4%	28%	5.2	6.9	2.4	5.2
8.9	Connelly Early	L	@KC	28.3%	35%	5.2	6.7	2.5	4.9
8.8	Tyler Mahle	R	@ARI	2.2%	32%	5.6	7.8	2.7	5.2
8.7	Sean Burke	R	@SEA	8.8%	25%	5.0	6.6	2.4	5.1
8.5	Carmen Mlodzinski	R	@STL	5.1%	28%	5.4	7.3	2.6	4.8
8.1	Randy Vasquez	R	LAD	52.4%	25%	5.4	7.0	2.4	4.0
8.1	Kyle Harrison	L	@CHC	40.3%	27%	5.0	7.1	2.6	5.1
7.8	Steven Matz	L	BAL	11.7%	7%	4.0	4.8	1.5	3.9
7.6	Zack Littell	R	NYM	1.2%	29%	5.5	7.1	3.1	4.4
7.2	Zach Thornton	L	@WSH	0.1%	16%	4.5	5.9	2.1	4.0
7.2	Michael Wacha	R	BOS	74.9%	23%	5.3	7.1	2.9	4.4
7.0	Aaron Civale	R	@LAA	16.2%	31%	5.3	7.2	3.0	4.4
6.9	Drew Anderson	R	CLE	0.3%	18%	4.6	6.1	2.3	4.1
6.0	Jack Kochanowicz	R	ATH	5.2%	37%	6.4	9.6	4.0	4.5
3.8	Jack Leiter	R	@COL	20.3%	36%	5.7	9.2	5.3	6.3
-0.7	Kyle Freeland	L	TEX	0.9%	23%	5.2	8.8	6.0	4.7

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
12.2	Braxton Ashcraft	R	@STL	68.4%	41%	6.0	7.1	2.3	5.6
11.2	David Peterson	L	@WSH	3.9%	39%	5.7	7.2	2.4	5.8
10.8	Carlos Rodon	L	TOR	57.8%	32%	5.0	5.7	1.8	5.0
10.4	Spencer Strider	R	@MIA	88.5%	28%	5.4	7.0	2.3	5.8
9.9	Sandy Alcantara	R	ATL	80.7%	36%	6.0	7.8	2.6	5.0
9.3	Dustin May	R	PIT	5.8%	29%	5.9	7.8	2.8	5.2
9.2	Luis Severino	R	@LAA	8.4%	38%	6.1	8.2	3.2	5.4
9.1	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	COL	33.9%	36%	6.1	8.3	3.3	5.7
8.0	Casey Mize	R	CLE	32.4%	26%	4.8	6.3	2.4	4.5
7.9	Jose Soriano	R	ATH	95.8%	32%	5.8	8.6	3.2	5.6
7.9	Cade Cavalli	R	NYM	6.3%	23%	5.4	7.6	2.9	5.3
6.2	Joey Cantillo	L	@DET	22.6%	15%	4.4	6.4	2.3	4.4
5.8	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	@ARI	2.7%	25%	4.9	6.7	2.8	3.5
3.3	Spencer Miles	R	@NYY	0.4%	1%	2.0	2.6	0.9	2.0

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37