Luke Rockhold is coming off a pretty good year.
The UFC middleweight sent Costas Philippou's poor liver to the afterlife (RIP). He contorted Tim Boetsch's frame into odd shapes it was never intended to be in and he routed Michael Bisping in such one-sided fashion, even the Brit's haters had to have felt a little sorry for him.
And despite all that, it could easily be argued that Rockhold (13-2) is only now back to where he was two years ago when he made his UFC debut.
Rockhold, 30, meets Lyoto Machida this weekend at UFC on Fox at the Prudential Center in Newark. Should Rockhold defeat the former UFC champion, he's nearly guaranteed to secure a middleweight title shot.
This isn't exactly uncharted territory for the Northern California-based fighter. In May 2013, Rockhold made his UFC debut opposite Vitor Belfort as the reigning Strikeforce champion. A win would have sent him to a title unification bout against Chris Weidman.
Belfort threw a million-dollar kick in the first round and -- just like that -- Rockhold's UFC debut was over. It has taken nearly two years to re-climb the mountain.
"That's what I love about the fight game," Rockhold told ESPN.com. "If it weren't for the lows, the highs wouldn't be so great. Everything can change in a split second, for better or worse. I wouldn't change a thing. I love my life and the ride that I'm on. That loss bettered me. That kick bettered me.
"I got caught by one kick and the problem is, to reporters and fans, you're only as good as what you do in the UFC. People saw me lose one fight and put me back at the bottom even though I dominated in Strikeforce. The last three fights, I went out to make a statement and prove it was a hiccup with Vitor."
The nasty thing about hiccups is you never know when they'll resurface.
Machida (22-5) represents a potential hiccup, for sure. The former light heavyweight champion has really shown no signs of slowing down at 36. It seems incredibly redundant to say before every Machida fight, but it's the truth: You aren't afforded many mistakes against him.
Javier Mendez, head coach at American Kickboxing Academy, has game-planned for some of the best fighters in the world. He trained Daniel Cormier for his fight against Jon Jones in January and was in Cain Velasquez's corner during all three fights with Junior dos Santos. Machida, he says, has been the toughest to prepare for of any of them.
"For me personally, Lyoto has been the hardest to game-plan for," Mendez said. "Out of everyone I've ever looked at and aligned where their strengths and weaknesses are, he's the hardest one. He's freaking good everywhere.
"To me, I do see Luke right back to where he was before. Now he's fighting an individual who is just as dangerous, if not more dangerous, than Belfort. We're at the same crossroads we were at back then. Luke is going against another alpha-male lion like himself and we'll see if he's ready for that. We feel he's ready, but in this game against someone like Machida, you make one mistake and you're out. We have to be on point."
After training with Rafael Cordeiro ahead of a title fight against Weidman in July, which he lost via unanimous decision, Machida has re-teamed with veteran Muay Thai coach Daniel Woirin, a former staple at Blackhouse MMA who broke off temporarily to coach at Team Quest.
Regardless of who is around him, Machida has long represented one of the more efficient finishers in the UFC, with six career knockouts in the Octagon.
Despite his first-hand knowledge of how far a knockout loss can set one's career back, Rockhold sought out a fight against Machida after defeating Bisping in November. As good as his 2014 campaign was, he has bigger plans in mind for 2015.
"I'm a realist and I don't believe that beating Bisping should have earned me a title shot," Rockhold said. "I don't want anything given to me. I'm here to prove that I'm the best in the world. I'm not here to skate by. This is fun for me. I can't wait to get in there and dance that dance with Machida and prove I'm better than him.
"I know that I'm back in a spot to go out and shine and get a title shot. I'm in a completely different space than I was last time. I was just a pissed off kid [against Belfort]. I'm ready for this opportunity more now."
ODDS:
Rockhold -140; Machida +120.
BREAKDOWN:
Rockhold has not been shy discussing a finish in this fight, but he better not actively hunt for one.
It's possible (and quite effective) to put pressure on Machida. Weidman wrote a blueprint on it. He removed some of the power in Machida's counters by aggressively putting him on his back foot. That also limited Machida's ability to kick effectively, which is one of his greatest threats.
Weidman is more composed than Rockhold coming forward, though. It takes a certain level of skill, discipline and stamina to pressure Machida in a five-round fight. Weidman's execution was near perfect in that title defense and he still ate dangerous shots in the fourth round, when he started to tire from the effort.
I think Rockhold has another option in that he could fight conservative -- pick away at a distance until it forces the smaller Machida to come forward and close space. He has the speed, size and technique from the outside to force Machida into doing something he doesn't like to do: pursue.
What I think we'll see out of Rockhold is a combination of the two. He'll take the center of the cage as he always does and walk Machida down, while at the same time trying to keep just enough real estate between them to take advantage of his size. Rockhold is great at doing this, but sometimes he can't help himself. If he opens up too much against Machida and over commits on his feet, we know that could end poorly for him.
The former Strikeforce champion's ability to get a win isn't restricted to one game plan; and I do think his ability to take the fight to the ground will come into play at some point. The main name of the game here is avoiding mistakes. If he gets trigger happy because he wants a finish, he'll be more mistake-prone.
PREDICTION:
One can never be real confident picking against Machida, but Rockhold seems like the obvious pick here. He has the talent and the stylistic advantages to beat Machida and now -- we're guessing -- he has the maturity to see it through and get his hand raised. He's also durable and has shown an ability to go five rounds. A Weidman-Rockhold title fight by the end of the year would be a dandy and I think we'll get it. ROCKHOLD BY DECISION.