With eight titles on these lawns, Roger Federer should be the favourite when he takes on Rafael Nadal on Friday, but so hot has Nadal been over the last 10 days that he goes in as slight favourite, with some justification.
To start with, Nadal has come through a tough draw for the loss of only one set, against Nick Kyrgios in the second round. In the quarter-final against big-serving Sam Querry, Nadal broke serve six times and polished him off 6-2, 6-2 in sets two and three. The Kyrgios match was a battle but Nadal stayed firm, winning two high-pressure tie-breakers.
Here are four reasons why Nadal will put it across Federer and move into his sixth Wimbledon final.
Nadal's perfect aggression
Nadal has been working on improving his attacking game for years now, but rarely has it all come together on a non-clay surface like it has so far at Wimbledon. It did in the 2010 US Open, which Nadal won for the loss of just one set, but that was nearly nine years ago.
What stands out in Nadal's matches so far is the number of winners he has hit: 179, with a winner-to-unforced-error ratio of 2.42, which is marginally better than Federer's 2.31. In his last three matches, those numbers have been even better: 109 winners, 34 unforced errors, for a ratio of 3.21. Federer's ratio in his last three matches is 2.36.
Historically, Nadal's strength has been his relentless defence and his ability to draw out forced errors from his opponents, but to this he has added razor-sharp attack, which is typified by his flat, powerful backhand crosscourt winners that he has hit from inside the court. In four of his six matches, he has hit more winners than his opponents, including in the match against Querry (44 to 38). In two of his matches, against Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Joao Sousa, he hit twice as many winners as his opponent. The only player who hit more winners than him was Kyrgios, but even there Nadal's count was higher when excluding the aces from both players.
Nadal the ace server
Aces haven't been Nadal's forte traditionally, but in Wimbledon 2019 he has fired 47 of them in five matches, which is an average of 9.4 per game. In fact, he has even out-aced Federer, who has only 42 aces so far. Nadal's highest ace count in any tournament so far is 54 - at Wimbledon 2006 and 2010; plus, he has never hit more aces than Federer at any previous Wimbledon. Thus, there are a couple of firsts waiting to happen here.
The potent serve has added teeth to Nadal's attacking game, giving him easier third-ball shots to put away for winners, thus also shortening his matches. It has also meant that opponents have only had a look at break points 14 times on Nadal's serve, which is exactly as many as Federer has faced in five matches so far.
Nadal's return game
The return game has always been Nadal's strength, and it has stayed strong on the grass: he has had 55 break opportunities so far, and has converted 25 times. Federer has been as good, with 24 conversions out of 47 break points, but Nadal's effort is probably a touch better given that he has had more matches against big-serving opponents.
The slower surface
Since the first day of Wimbledon 2019, plenty has been said about how slow the grass courts have been this year. Mark Petchey, the former England player and current BBC commentator, said this: 'Looking at the pace of these courts I would have seeded Nadal one...', while Martina Navratilova agreed: "Slow. Very slow. Just look at who is in the round of 16 in the men -- so many clay-court players..." There are numbers to back that up too, according to tennisabstract.com.
Federer alluded to that too, after his fourth-round win against Matteo Berrettini, a big-serving Italian who managed only three aces in a 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 demolition. "What was I going to say? The guy is serving on average 130 miles (per hour) and second serve 105 or 110. He gets three aces. It's just slow. Especially tonight, conditions are a bit cooler. I just felt like, you know, it's not really going through.
"If you're almost clocking 140 (miles per hour) serves, you should be rewarded a little bit more probably. There is definitely an issue with the speed of the balls or the speed of the courts." Federer's own ace count of 42 is his lowest at Wimbledon since 2003, apart from 2013, when he lost in the second round; last year, he had 81 aces, even though he lost in the quarters.
It's ironical that Nadal has managed 47 aces in the same conditions, but the slower courts will most likely hamper Federer's ability to hit clean winners, and allow Nadal more time to get an extra ball back.
That, added to his improved attacking ability, should give Nadal more options to vary his gameplan. For Federer, nothing but the perfect game will be enough.
With stats inputs from Bryan Beasley