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Projected NFL draft order for 2022: Who has the No. 1 pick?

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The Detroit Lions now have the best chance to pick No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL draft, according to the updated 1-32 draft order projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The Lions dropped to 0-2 Monday night as the Green Bay Packers bounced back from a terrible Week 1 performance. Green Bay is now projected at No. 17 overall.

There have already been five trades involving first-round picks in the 2022 draft, with the New York Giants projected to have two top-10 picks. The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to have three first-round picks, thanks to deals with the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts, the latter of which involves a conditional pick based on quarterback Carson Wentz's playing time. After dealing with a preseason foot injury, Wentz played in Week 1, then sprained both of his ankles in Week 2. His status for Week 3 is still unclear.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team's average draft position in the simulations. "Stats to know" are courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2022 NFL draft (updated Sept. 21):

1. Detroit Lions (0-2)

Average draft position: 5.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 66.1%


2. New York Jets (0-2)

Average draft position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 17.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.9%


3. Atlanta Falcons (0-2)

Average draft position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.3%


4. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

Average draft position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 65.6%


5. New York Giants (0-2)

Average draft position: 7.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 42.1%


6. Houston Texans (1-1)

Average draft position: 9.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38.1%


7. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

Average draft position: 11.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 20.2%


8. New York Giants (via 1-1 CHI)

Average draft position: 11.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21.6%


9. Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 18.3%


10. Washington (1-1)

Average draft position: 13.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 14.7%


11. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

Average draft position: 13.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 14.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 39.9%


12. Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

Average draft position: 13.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 41.8%


13. Philadelphia Eagles (via 0-2 IND)

Average draft position: 14.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 34.1%


14. Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)

Average draft position: 15.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 23.9%


15. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)

Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 23.4%


16. Tennessee Titans (via 0-2 IND)

Average draft position: 18.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 7.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 23.2%


17. Green Bay Packers (1-1)

Average draft position: 18.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 21.7%


18. New Orleans Saints (1-1)

Average draft position: 18.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.5%


19. Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)

Average draft position: 18.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.0%


20. Carolina Panthers (2-0)

Average draft position: 19.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.9%


21. New England Patriots (1-1)

Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.7%


22. New York Jets (via 1-1 SEA)

Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.5%


23. Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Average draft position: 21.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.4%


24. Cleveland Browns (1-1)

Average draft position: 21.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.9%


25. Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Average draft position: 21.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.0%


26. Denver Broncos (2-0)

Average draft position: 21.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.4%


27. Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

Average draft position: 22.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: %


28. Miami Dolphins (via 2-0 SF)

Average draft position: 23.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.8%


29. Detroit Lions (via 2-0 LAR)

Average draft position: 24.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.8%


30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)

Average draft position: 26.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.4%


31. Buffalo Bills (1-1)

Average draft position: 26.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.0%


32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

Average draft position: 26.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.4%